This week Fred and review the latest data on the Delta variant that is sweeping across countries and causing concern. The data as it stands suggests this variant is more contagious (spreads easier from person to person) and has increased virulence (more likely to cause severe illness in unvaccinated people). It has become the dominant strain in a number of areas and likely will around the world.
What does it all mean to you and us? Well, the existing NPI recommendations should still be applied depending on the circumstances and the population or group you are thinking about but makes clear that vaccination is ever more important for everyone that can safely receive the vaccine
😷 Continued use of appropriate NPI’s depending on risk
💉 Widespread adoption of vaccines
https://youtu.be/qIWmB_0rNrU
Raw Transcript
Nick van Terheyden
Hi, this is Dr. Nick, I’m the incrementalist here with incremental insights for better business better health.
Fred Goldstein
And I’m Fred Goldstein with accountable health here helping companies as they look at operating and helping their employees improve their overall health status. So Nick, we’ve talked about variance before. But obviously right now, this, this delta variant is really a hot topic. So when you think about that, what is the difference? What does it really mean?
Nick van Terheyden
Well, so some things that we know about the variance, or the Delta variance specifically, based on the data that’s emerged to date, and we know that it is more variance. So that means that it spreads easier. So if you had, I can’t even believe I’m saying these words, regular COVID. So COVID, as it first emerged, and you compare that to the new variant, or the Delta variant, we see a much higher incidence of that virus spreading from a one individual to other individuals that are in proximity. So it’s more virulent, spreads easier, and ultimately, more contagious. Which means that we are getting more cases as a result of it. I think, what I read last week could even be the week before, in Scotland in the United Kingdom, it’s over 90% of all COVID cases. So it’s really sort of becoming the primary version of the virus that we see. What does that mean? Well, everything that we knew before still applies, except in some instances, it’s just more significant, because we have to be more cautious about the spread. And indeed, because it’s more virulent, and is causing more disease, in particular, and people that are not vaccinated, it makes the urgency of getting vaccinated, even more important today than it was before. And it’s going to create a host of problems. If we don’t get people to get on board the vaccine train, especially as we get through the summer and get into the fall and the winter months, we think we’re going to see a much bigger expansion of this disease.
Fred Goldstein
I also believe, Nick, I think, you know, from a medical perspective, with the vaccines, they’re showing slightly less efficacy against the Delta variant. Is that true? Particularly Yeah, so the second,
Nick van Terheyden
I want to be slightly cautious that I mean, yes, that’s true. But let’s be clear, the vaccines are still effective. And one of the things that is both difficult to understand, and indeed difficult to explain, is the difference between relative risk and absolute risk. And I’m not going to try at this point, yes, the vaccines are not quite as effective in the case of individuals succumbing to the Delta variant, but in absolute terms, that risk is lost, not insignificant, it’s not Oh, my goodness, game over man. We still have effective combat to this disease. And that is primarily all the things that we’ve done the npis that we’ve talked about extensively in all of our episodes, but also, importantly, the vaccine initiative that is expanding, and we’re now tailing off, we’re at the point where I’m seeing I’m walking into pharmacies, and it says vaccine available, no appointment necessary walk up. What does that mean for colleges, businesses? Well, how do we approach this, Fred?
Fred Goldstein
Yeah, it’s interesting, because you point out the vaccines do work and work very well against this variant as well, which is really important. And I think as we think about that, it really comes down to where are you living? What community are you in? And how are you exposed? How many people in that community are vaccinated? And so when you think about universities or other organizations that bring people in from all over the world, potentially from different states with different levels of infection and different levels of people vaccinated. It’s going to be an interesting thing to watch you’re seeing now cruise ships say what will go ahead with the cruises, but for those of you that are not vaccinated, we’re going to test you beforehand. We’re going to test you once you’re on The ship Three days later, we’re going to potentially test you again, you’re not going to be allowed into certain venues on the cruise line or activities. They’re going to separate them when they sit down for meals. And so they’re really looking at how do you keep it safe with this newer variant that potentially spreads easier. And I think universities as well are looking at that as a potential option. So it’s it’s really important, I think, as we’ve talked about, to get as many people vaccinated as possible to to reduce the risk of having this delta variant, go through the population, like we’ve seen elsewhere, and create more individuals who are sick. It’s interesting to note that in those communities that are reporting higher vaccination rates, they’re beginning to see no hospitalizations with COVID, which is just great news, isn’t it? It really is. And,
Nick van Terheyden
you know, I understand the resistance and you know, even some concern around vaccines, but all the data and we have huge amounts of data. And yes, we’ve seen some side effects. But to be clear, those side effects are really very infants personally small relative to the risk of the disease. So the risk reward ratio from a vaccine standpoint is very high, which makes it something that everybody that is able to should be accepted. Now, this country has not gone for a mandate. I’m sure there are other countries that are, we’ve seen lots of historical instances of compulsion. I’m not sure that that’s the right move. free beer, lotteries winning money, all of those things have been extraordinarily effective, let’s positively induce this, and help people see the safety record of these vaccines and get that vaccination rate up. That is our pathway to true opening up and getting rid of these berries in particular, because the more the disease is able to spread, the more variants that emerge, and essentially one or other of these variants can emerge and be more problematic, as we’ve seen with the Delta variant and some other variants in the past.
Fred Goldstein
Absolutely. And one final note of caution. In Manatee County, you know, the government had this situation reported this past week where their number of individuals and their IT department weren’t affected. They’ve closed the building. And of those in the IT department, I believe there were five and and four of them were not vaccinated. I think there were two deaths there and some hospitalizations. And obviously, this is still an issue we’re living with, and we need to be very careful. So once again, Nick, another fantastic week. I’m Fred Goldstein with accountable health. If you’d like any more information, please go to accountable health LLC COMM And this
Nick van Terheyden
is Dr. Nick on the incrementalist here with incremental insights for better business, better health.
