Coronavirus
The statistics are jarring – as of the latest update from WHO of 77,794 confirmed (599 new) cases globally with the majority coming from China with 2,348 deaths in China and 11 outside of China.
COVID19 Distribution Worldwide Feb 22
The fatality rate in the point of origin (Wuhan China) is between 2-4% but outside of this region fatality rate is much lower. Large populations being affected in Korea, Iran and Italy have given rise to additional concern and the term “Pandemic” (disease *prevalent* in the whole world) which based on current data is not the case
Flu
Influenza, known by its common term “Flu” for comparison has to date infected some 13 million people:
At this point in the season, CDC estimates indicate that there have been 13 million influenza illnesses, 120,000 hospitalizations, and 6600 flu-related deaths.
The weekly report from the CDC is worth reading if you are interested in the spread and detailed analysis including the strains involved and even includes some good dynamic graphical representations of the spread over time with drill-down capability
In the case of the 2019/2020 flu season, the mortality rate is 6.8% currently (which by the CDC calculations is below their threshold for epidemic set at 7.3%). The CDC estimates the number of deaths from Flu this season at ~ 16,000
What Does it All Mean
The COVID-19 illness is serious and remains of concern but in relative terms, your likelihood outside of very specific populations such as those in Wuhan China remains a lower concern than your risk from contracting Flu. Hopefully, you have already had your Flu Vaccination, if not it is still not too late and you should get that as soon as possible (unless you have specific clinical reasons why you cannot or should not receive this vaccination)
But all the advice that applies to flu preparedness and prevention applies to reduce your risk of infection from the COVID-19 strain of Coronavirus
What can You Do?
Beyond the vaccination for the Flu, general guidance falls into good basic hygiene or prevention and if you do get infected with flu there are some anti-viral drugs, but as you will see below these remain of questionable value so prevention remains the mainstay of health. The guidance from the WHO on prevention relative to COVID-19 is very similar to the flu prevention steps both include these incremental steps to take each and every day to help prevent the spread of either Flu or COVID-19
- Avoiding close contact with people suffering from acute respiratory infections.
- Frequent hand-washing, especially after direct contact with ill people or their environment.
- Avoiding unprotected contact with farm or wild animals.
- People with symptoms of acute respiratory infection should practice cough etiquette (maintain distance, cover coughs and sneezes with disposable tissues or clothing, and wash hands).
- Within health care facilities, enhance standard infection prevention and control practices in hospitals, especially in emergency departments.
What about Anti Viral Treatments
This report from 2015 is well worth watching that digs into the trials for anti-viral drugs. Once again the failure to release all the data remains a problem in fully assessing the effectiveness of any new therapy (hiding behind patient privacy seems disingenuous in this instance). As you will hear the data presented came from 15 trials, of a total of 123 trials of which 73 are funded and controlled by the drug company producing the antiviral Tamiflu. It took 4 years to have all the data released and the new analysis of the benefits was analyzed showing that it reduced the symptoms by approximately 1 day but did not affect any positive effect for complications or hospitalizations. It also demonstrated that the side effects were more serious than had previously been documented. While there are new studies that suggest the drug may be more effective there are questions hanging over the study sponsorship and the end position IMO is this is not settled science and certainly not a reliable treatment choice to be relied upon as a primary tool for flu and COVID-19 infections
So the message here is – don’t think you can get by without prevention and rely on after the fact anti-viral treatment
